After One Month, The Verdict Is In For ETFs

BlackRock alone holds more than 0.5% of all BTC in existence, and inflows are accelerating.

Is there any doubt about the ETFs' success now?

God candle? Sell-the-news disaster? Just five weeks ago, Crypto Twitter was giving a cacophony of opinions about how bitcoin spot ETFs would be received. As ever, the least informed voices were often the loudest.

After a month, and scarcely 20 trading days, we now know the truth. These have been some of the most successful ETFs ever launched. There is huge interest from TradFi, and it doesn't seem to be waning. In fact, inflows are increasing.

By The Numbers

Yesterday was the biggest day for the ETFs since the much-hyped launch day itself. Total inflows were 12,736 BTC, over $600 million. The supply shock this demand brings has catapulted BTC above $50,000 for the first time in over two years.

  • Net inflows are over 80,000 BTC, close to $4 billion.
  • Grayscale has seen outflows of 156,000 BTC.
  • The "newborn nine" (excluding GBTC) have accumulated almost 237,000 BTC. (Microstrategy, for comparison, holds 190,000 BTC.)
  • The nine hold more than 1% of total bitcoin supply.
  • BlackRock alone holds well over 100,000 BTC: More than 0.5% of total bitcoin supply.
  • Bitcoin is once again a trillion-dollar asset.
  • Bitcoin broke the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the last peak to the bear market low before the halving, for the first time ever, indicating that this cycle is progressing faster than previous ones.
  • A new all-time high before the halving is not out of the question, which would also be unprecedented. It would also raise the possibility of a left-translated market cycle.
What Is A Left-Translated Bitcoin Market Cycle?
It’s possible that a flood of institutional capital could push BTC to an early cycle high.

Breaking Records

Despite what the critics predicted, the ETFs have been unbelievably successful. Together, in the space of a month, they have seen inflows that took the first gold ETF two years to achieve.

Moreover, two of the ETFs (BlackRock and Fidelity) are in the top 10 for flows this year, with IBIT rivaling the Nasdaq ETF.

In another two months, the halving will take place, and the supply of new coins will drop to 450 BTC per day. Realistically, though, that's going to make little difference given that the demand from ETFs is already 10,000 BTC per day.

Price or demand: Something has to give, and soon.

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