December 11 REX Wire Market Outlook

Jobs data is strong and stocks are climbing to all-time highs.

Why did gold and digital gold correct?

The news is still pessimistic, with warnings of recession for 2024, but the reality that the markets are telling us is anything but.

Last weeks non-farm payroll figures came in stronger than expected, with 199,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. Economists had been expecting 185,000 jobs to be added, and an unemployment rate of 3.9%.

The dollar spiked with the news, as traders assumed that interest rate rises would be back on the menu after discounting any more for the foreseeable future. Following some volatility in the DXY, we're now waiting to see how the market digests the news and whether that lower high in the USD holds.

Mortgage rates have fallen to four-month lows, as providers anticipate rate cuts in the near future.

Meanwhile, major share indices, including the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, are closing in on their all-time highs. The Dow Jones is now at its ATH. These valuations are like a magnet. If and when they get there, it will be price discovery time.

AI is one of the big narratives driving stocks right now. There's also some interesting news from the ETF sector, as new ETF launches have reached an all-time high: There is clearly demand for these products.

Gold, on the other hand, has slipped back below $2,000 after putting in a brief all-time high. Digital gold, too, has had a tough day.


Bitcoin closed Sunday in the green, just below $44,000: An impressive eight straight green weekly candles. After such a run, a correction is long overdue, and we saw that immediately the new week started. BTC dropped over $3,000 in a matter of a few hours, before bouncing and stabilizing (for now).

This is a small pullback by bitcoin's usual standards, less than 10%. BTC can see 30-40% corrections at this point in a bullrun, keeping traders guessing. There's still lots of greed in the market.

BTC is currently sat just above $42,000, which is the 50% mark of the move from the all-time high to the bear-market low. Holding this would be positive.

Evidence so far points to bitcoin's price action this year being almost solely down to institutional interest. The informal "Friends and Family Indicator" is reading close to zero. As the final ETF deadlines approach, BTC is hogging the spotlight. The mood music is growing more and more positive there, as the SEC engages with providers. VanEck has decided to differentiate itself from the competition by making overtures to the crypto crowd with its new ticker name.

Bitcoin Dominance is around 54%, at a two-and-a-half-year high and strongly trending upwards on the weekly timeframe. The chart of ETH/BTC, however, is looking very sick indeed.

While US institutions are, by and large, thawing to crypto, others are not. Senator Liz Warren has warned that crypto is a "national problem". Aside from all the domestic money laundering and tax evasion, she claims it's being used to fund approximately half of North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

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