March 11 REX Wire Market Outlook

Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high above $70,000, and shows no sign of stopping.

Where will bitcoin top out?

It's another heady week for the markets, as the "everything bubble" gains pace.

Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data gave a mixed picture, with the US economy adding 275,000 new jobs in February. While that came in ahead of forecasts (200,000), the previous two months' figures were revised down by 167,000.

The economy is not the markets, however. The S&P 500 made a new all-time high on Friday and then corrected, but there's nothing structurally different about the chart. The Nikkei, too, made an ATH before correcting. Gold passed its ATH, and the dollar continues to weaken.

Bitcoin: Price Discovery

Bitcoin also made a tentative new all-time high on Friday, followed by another pullback (albeit one less severe than the $10,000 correction of Tuesday March 5). Coinbase went down again for the third time in a row, its standard behavior at times of extreme activity.

Then on Monday morning, BTC blew past $70k and entered true price discovery territory. At the time of writing it has made a high of $71,600, but that's liable to be out of date within minutes. Things will move very fast now.

Targets are, by nature, difficult to spot in price discovery, since traders have not yet established those support and resistance levels that give them cues about possible risk and return. We might look to $100,000 as a large, round number, which will act as a magnet for expectations. Moreover, this roughly coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level from the bear market low to the prior all-time high of $69,000. Anthony Pompliano notes that bitcoin has generally doubled in price within weeks of breaking its all-time high in previous cycles, which would give a target close to $140,000.

Meanwhile the new ETFs continue to aggressively accumulate. BlackRock now controls more bitcoins than Microstrategy. Grayscale, however, has hemorrhaged so many coins that it has fallen below 400,000 BTC and been overtaken by the new nine.

This week also sees closing arguments from both sides in the COPA vs Wright trial. While this should not have a direct effect on the markets, it's a landmark event in crypto history and all part of the narrative building around bitcoin.

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