March 4 REX Wire Market Outlook

As the TradFi markets hit new highs, bitcoin tilts its head and says, "Hold my beer".

When will bitcoin hit its all-time high?

There's plenty of good news from the TradFi markets right now, with key indices including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hitting fresh all-time highs. Even China's Shanghai Composite has soared 15% from its lows, following intervention from the government. The DXY is treading water, awaiting a clear direction.

It's not all rosy, though. New York Community Bancorp, which ran into problems a few weeks back due to significant losses on its commercial real estate portfolio, is back in the news. The bank's shares fell another 25% at the end of last week after making leadership changes and disclosing "issues with its internal controls". At the beginning of the year, NYCB was trading above $10. Now's it's at $3.55.

It's a familiar story and there's a familiar script. We're at the "Things are worse than we originally thought" stage. There's a "Bailout" or "Buyout" stage, but the one to watch is the "Systemic problem" stage, at which the industry and regulators admit there's something bigger going on here. We're not there yet, and we may never be. We just know with a high degree of certainty that there are more banks with more bad debts that we don't yet know about.

Well, we can't all be Microstrategy, which has blasted past $1,000 and is set to open 10% higher than its closing price last week.

Bitcoin Closes In On All-Time High

Bitcoin has had a stellar week, after a incredible month, after an outstanding year.

February brought bitcoin's first $20k monthly candle, and things have only got better from there. While technical metrics are screaming overbought, BTC pushes higher, recently passing $65,000 and less than 6% off its all-time high. (As numerous critics have pointed out, adjusted for inflation, the ATH is now somewhere closer to $80,000.)

The ETFs are driving the narrative, and chewing through impressive quantities of BTC (though they're actually only a small percentage of the total market volume). BlackRock's IBIT became the fastest ETF ever to reach $10 billion, taking just 7 weeks. Gold has been losing market share to bitcoin, and although gold itself is now close to an all-time high, Peter Schiff is furious.

The ETFs' demand for BTC is remarkable. OTC desks are being drained, making it harder for anyone to buy in size without slippage.

Right now, even the bad news is good news. February 29 brought the second largest ever GBTC outflow of $600 million, but it was eaten by BlackRock's inflows alone.

Moreover, there are suggestions that this outflow was Genesis selling their GBTC to pay their Earn debts. Since Gemini has struck a deal to pay their customers in crypto, these funds would simply be used to buy BTC again.

It's going to be a fun week. Are you ready, Anon?

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