What Is A Left-Translated Bitcoin Market Cycle?
It's possible that a flood of institutional capital could push BTC to an early cycle high.
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In today's roundup, falling inflation injects confidence into the markets, even risky AT1 bonds. Sam Altman has been pushed out of his own company, and Argentina has a new president—albeit one who isn't to everyone's tastes. We also take a look at the changing crypto ETF landscape, and how our economy's manic depression needs a different treatment.
With inflation finally under control, traders have confidence that we've seen the last of the interest rate rises for this cycle. That, in turn, has weakened the dollar and put a rocket under risk assets, with the S&P500 and bitcoin powering higher.
OpenAI confirms Sam Altman's exit as CEO, appointing Emmett Shear as interim leader. Altman, with co-founder Greg Brockman, is now exploring a new AI startup, attracting notable tech investor interest.
Javier Milei, a radical libertarian, wins Argentina's presidential election with 55.8% of the vote. He pledges major economic reforms and dollarization to combat 142.7% inflation. Despite controversy over his extreme views, Milei's victory ends the long-standing Peronist rule and hints at a new political era in Argentina.
OI on Deribit, the leading options and futures exchange, has passed $15 billion. This indicates that experienced traders are returning to a hated and feared market. In particular, they are betting that BTC will rise in price by the end of the year.
Bank investors show renewed interest in AT1 bonds, exemplified by UBS's $3.5 billion issuance, despite past issues like Credit Suisse's AT1 wipeout. The market's resilience raises questions about the long-term viability of these instruments.
Investors expect the ECB and BoE to cut rates sooner due to economic slowdown signs in the eurozone and UK, despite central banks' warnings about ongoing inflation. Recent data shows weak retail sales and industrial production, prompting a shift from earlier predictions of late rate cuts.
A critical question regarding the topic of the article could be: "Will the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs genuinely offer a more secure and cost-effective investment option, or will they simply replicate the volatility and regulatory challenges associated with current futures-based bitcoin ETFs?"
Nearly 15 years ago, Czech economist Tomas Sedlacek noted that prioritizing GDP growth forced the economy into wild swings between excess and recession. Today, as US government debt nears $34 trillion, his treatment seems timely.
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